September 27, 2005
GREAT DISMAL: CONCLUSION
Maybe you've been waiting for J of Quibbles & Bits to finish writing "Great Dismal" so that you wouldn't be left dangling between parts.
It's finished now. Part 11 is up. Links to parts 1-10 are there, too.
Posted by: Harvey at
10:29 AM
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PLAYING DICE WITH THE UNIVERSE
Ogre of Ogre's Politics & Views
mulls over the possibility of the universe arising by happenstance, crunches some numbers, and concludes.
"In other words, according to physics and mathematics, there is absolutely no possible way that this universe was created through random chance -- it's simply not possible."
I beg to differ. There's a big difference between "infinitesimally small" and "non-existent".
What he's calculating are the odds of getting it right on the first try.
To calculate the probability of the universe as we know it getting created, you'd need to know the number of trials that were attempted.
As the number of trials approaches the inverse of the odds of occurrance, the likelihood of success approaches certainty. Not knowing the number of trials involved, though, there's no conclusion to reach about how much of a long-shot the universe is. There may well have been a Googolplex of failed universes before a functional one popped up.
For the record, I'm agnostic about any particular theory of universal creation. The rules of physics changed at the (moment of creation/big bang), and without consistent rules, there's no way to deduce what happened before that moment.
So if you want to say "God created it", fine.
Me, I'm just going to say "I don't know, and I don't think I ever will".
I'm only an atheist about the stuff that happened afterwards.
Posted by: Harvey at
10:04 AM
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1
I'm not going to say who, what, when, why, or how, but I'm just going to ask this:
As a kid, or even now, how many times have you dumped out a cannister of lincoln logs and they've bounced into a cabin? Or taken an erector set, tossed up all the pieces together, and had a working vehicle when it landed?
I'm not saying that it's impossible, just nearly so... unless there's some assistance.
Posted by: That 1 Guy at September 27, 2005 10:36 AM (YcI5w)
2
Even if you take the case that there was only one attempt the probability argument doesn't work.
What happened is one of a possibly infinite number of outcomes, but something was going to happen, and whatever it was that happened was going to be one of a possibly infinite number of outcomes.
The only think that makes it interesting is the fact that we are talking about large enough numbers that they are approaching unimaginable.
Posted by: tommy at September 27, 2005 10:43 AM (TWHR8)
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(Anxiously waiting Harvey's Response to T1G because the odds don't increase with infinite possibilities, according to the smart math people).
Posted by: Ogre at September 27, 2005 02:11 PM (/k+l4)
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Slightly away from the point, here are some pretty fly MC Hawking lyrics:
I'm not saying there's no God,
That's not for me to say.
I'm just saying the universe
wasn't built in a day.
Posted by: Chuck at September 27, 2005 07:47 PM (JXgKx)
5
Dump out that bucket of Lincoln logs.
Return logs to bucket.
Dump again.
Repeat every minute for several billion years.
No matter how improbable, as long as something isn't completely impossible it will happen given a long enough time span.
That said, my own personal belief is that the nature of the universe and man's understanding of it are mutally exclusive. That there is an intelligence behind everything, and if we ever even come close to figuring out the rules of the game that intelligence will change the rules around because it's a complete asshole like that.
Posted by: Graumagus at September 27, 2005 10:07 PM (z9usc)
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T1G - Sure, in THIS universe, pouring Lincoln Logs into a cabin is improbable, but if you adjust some of the physical constants, it becomes quite commonplace :-)
Posted by: Harvey at September 27, 2005 10:22 PM (ubhj8)
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I find the example flawed in that logs do not have the capacity to evolve. Each instantiation of a human habitable environment is unique. Even if they were all identical, the myriad of possible variables induces the possibility of random having success.
By the way, I support ID.
Posted by: _Jon at September 27, 2005 10:23 PM (sSrI9)
8
But odds and probability are different things. Odds are a mathematical number. Probability is the chance that something will actually happen. In this example, and the Lincoln Log example, you might be able to calculate that there is a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (breath) 000,000,000,000 chance that the logs when dumped out will form a house. However, the probability of that happening is zero -- it will not happen.
It's the same with the origin of the universe. Mathematically, it's simply not possible to randomly form, no matter how many times you dump that pile of stuff out.
Posted by: Ogre at September 28, 2005 06:02 AM (/k+l4)
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Ogre - You're assuming these physical constants CAN be dumped. There may be an underlying force in the universe (as yet unknown) which - as an emergent property - causes constants to be restricted to what they are.
Of course, if THAT were true, you'd point to THAT and say "See? Intelligent Design!" :-)
Anyway, for everyone's amusement:
Infinite Monkeys!
Posted by: Harvey at September 28, 2005 07:44 AM (ubhj8)
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LAUNDRY QUESTION
Serious question.
I've heard that adding bluing to your whites can make them look whiter.
Can you get the same effect by washing blue jeans with your whites?
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1
one of my first lessons as a new nurse, how to use blueing in the whites. You always want to look clean, fesh, and sparkling!
Posted by: ArmyWifeToddlerMom at September 27, 2005 10:57 AM (sX/pV)
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Cool. Never heard of the stuff and it sounds like something that I would want.
Posted by: VW Bug at September 27, 2005 12:47 PM (J3xJ9)
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Laundry? What's that? Is that something new?
Posted by: Ogre at September 27, 2005 02:17 PM (/k+l4)
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Doubtful - there is no control over how much blue dye is released into the wash water with blue jeans. When they're new - it's often quite a lot - which would make white clothes look blue... later there is none which defeats the purpose. (Not to mention - I have no idea if they are the same kind of dyes... bluing may be very different from blue jean dye)
Also, white clothes tend to be made from more delicate fabrics - so washing with blue jeans will cause them to wear out faster than normal even if the "bluing" effect does work. And some could even be ripped by catching on the zipper.
It'd just be cheaper and more effective to grab some Mrs. Stewart's - which has been around for as long as I can remember - my mom used to use it.
Posted by: Teresa at September 27, 2005 05:29 PM (qm5ss)
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Laundry: Something your wife is supposed to do, but she fucks it up, so you end up having to do it yourself so it gets done correctly...
Posted by: Madfish Willie at September 27, 2005 07:01 PM (YFiLK)
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Bluing actually has a high concentration of UV brightener that is mostly responsible for the the 'whiter' whites. It's not just a plain blue dye. (Many laundry detergents contain the UV brightener in smaller amounts, to attempt to achieve the same effect.)
I learned the hard way about UV brighteners and fabrics when shooting weddings. Cheaper wedding dress fabrics use a lot of it to appear whiter. Unfortunately, colour film records UV quite strongly as blue. A really cheap wedding dress could be pretty much impossible to colour correct, without throwing off the colour balance of the rest of the image.
I even had to wash the sheets I used as light diffusers in soap, rather than detergent, as it doesn't have the UV enhancers.
P.
Posted by: Light & Dark at September 28, 2005 01:56 AM (+Ds2b)
7
Washing whites with blue jeans or even blue clothes will make your whites turn blue.
Trust me.
That was an educational experience I didn't need to learn.
Posted by: Machelle at September 28, 2005 07:09 AM (ZAyoW)
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LIGHT POSTING BEHIND
Yeah, been kinda quiet around here for the last few days.
Why?
Because Doom: The Movie is coming out soon.
"Huh?"
Well, I've heard that it's based somewhat on Doom 3, which I'd started 3 times & never finished because somewhere in mid-adventure, I'd suffer a hard-drive failure, lose all my saved games, and have to start over.
Anyway, it's finished now. Kudos to the folks at Id Software for a great piece of work.
I just hope they include the flashlight for the next release.
No, not that one. This one.
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Ok, it has cute boys in it (Karl Urban and The Rock)
and I played the original game a little, so I am going to put it on my "to see" list.
Posted by: Susie at September 28, 2005 09:50 AM (a0oF7)
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OSAMA - CHECK YOUR VOICE MAIL
Have to disagree with AndyB of
Embrace the Nothingness. I think the Dalai Lama is
exactly right:
The Dalai Lama told 36,000 people at Rutgers Stadium that the concept of war was outdated and young people have a responsibility to make this century one of peace.
Wait... he WAS talking to the terrorists, right?
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I'll be happy to make this a "century of peace" - peace through superior firepower.
Posted by: Jenna at September 27, 2005 10:48 AM (f/kUC)
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TODAY'S LOVE NOTE
(
Introduction)
I only wish to be the fountain of love from which you drink, every drop promising eternal passion.
(CAUTION: Romantics beware - comments may contain naughtiness)
[Like the Love Notes? Get the e-book]
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Posted by: Harvey at September 27, 2005 08:14 AM (ubhj8)
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Good for her shin too...
Posted by: Sarah at September 27, 2005 11:27 AM (BS8bj)
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SKIN not shin. *stupid stupid fingers*
Posted by: Sarah at September 27, 2005 11:29 AM (BS8bj)
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September 26, 2005
WHO'S THE GREATEST FOOTBALL TEAM IN THE ENTIRE UNIVERSE?
I love them because they teach me the evils of hubris.
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I love Cadillac and all his manflesh.
Crap, did I say that out loud?
Posted by: Brandon at September 26, 2005 12:20 PM (CzSs6)
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LOL!!!
You think you guys would learn not to bet against Tam.
Posted by: Bou at September 26, 2005 02:04 PM (5JHEt)
Posted by: evilnerd15 at September 26, 2005 05:01 PM (z/m1I)
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Go Bears!
Though I won't hesitate to root for Brett "F'n" "FARVE" and the Packers if they face Tom "Golden Boy" Brady and the (Massachusetts?!) Patriots in the Super Bowl again.
Posted by: The Babaganoosh at September 26, 2005 05:31 PM (v1W1X)
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I'm a life long Bears fan.
They've taught me the valuble lesson that, no matter how bad life is at any given moment, it can always get worse.
Posted by: Graumagus at September 26, 2005 09:16 PM (9SY37)
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I.
Am.
Happy.
:-)
This may even get you out of the boxer shorts and sweatshirt picture. Maybe...if I have a good week!
Posted by: Tammi at September 26, 2005 09:57 PM (VnuB1)
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In a game between the Bucs and the Pack, you bet on the Pack???
< napolean > Idiot! < /dynamite >
I understand team loyalty, pride, and all that but seriously...at a certain point you shut up, drink your beer and throw cheetos at the TV.
If you need help mastering that skill, talk to any Minnesota Vikings fan.
Posted by: Kevin at September 26, 2005 10:21 PM (Nmxi6)
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I was pretty sure we where going to win this one, and then when I found out Longwell mised a PAT and FG.... Eh... maybe the 70's and 80's are comeing back.
Posted by: Contagion at September 27, 2005 07:58 AM (Q5WxB)
9
On the other hand, the Pack DID score 2 touchdowns on the #1 defense in the league.
Except for Longwell's quirky foot, the team seems to be finding its groove & working together. They weren't NEARLY as discombobulated as they were in the first 2 weeks.
I think they may pull out of this funk yet.
Posted by: Harvey at September 27, 2005 08:41 AM (ubhj8)
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I just keep clicking over here to see this. I just *love* this post!
:-)
Posted by: Tammi at September 27, 2005 08:37 PM (Q6Twe)
Posted by: Harvey at September 28, 2005 07:26 AM (ubhj8)
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TODAY'S LOVE NOTE
(
Introduction)
Love is like swallowing hot chocolate before it has cooled off. It takes you by surprise at first, but keeps you warm for a long time.
(CAUTION: Romantics beware - comments may contain naughtiness)
[Like the Love Notes? Get the e-book]
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... I've always said the my love is like a big mouthful of surprise...
Posted by: Harvey at September 26, 2005 08:41 AM (ubhj8)
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September 23, 2005
TODAY'S LOVE NOTE
(
Introduction)
"If ever there was a man who felt he had found the secret to perfecting his life it is I... I have found it in you. You have unfolded like a beautiful butterfly, becoming more than I ever imagined... you are forever adding balance to my life and clearing my vision."
(CAUTION: Romantics beware - comments may contain naughtiness)
[Like the Love Notes? Get the e-book]
Posted by: Harvey at
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...by which I mean please take off the blindfold...
Posted by: Harvey at September 23, 2005 10:25 AM (ubhj8)
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So I can see that beauty that lies skin deep and awaits me full of heat!
Posted by: michele at September 25, 2005 09:42 AM (ht2RK)
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Damn it!
I was gonna put some brooding, snarking thing about loss here but your comments are so uppy I couldn't flog them like that.
Posted by: _Jon at September 26, 2005 07:56 AM (ZM3Qb)
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By which I mean;
Thank you Family for helping to keep me out of the doldrums that visit me sometimes. Even without trying, you still help keep me going.
Posted by: _Jon at September 26, 2005 07:57 AM (ZM3Qb)
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CRAP!
We were sorta hoping to drive you over the edge & make you go postal :-)
Posted by: Harvey at September 26, 2005 08:55 AM (ubhj8)
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Well, I can't promise that won't still happen...
Posted by: _Jon at September 26, 2005 12:05 PM (ZM3Qb)
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TODAY'S GRAFFITI CURRENCY
(click to enlarge)
[
Rob L. TNV]
Just a reminder to myself that Rob Lowe is going to be on Fox's new show "Tuesday Night Vasectomy".
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September 22, 2005
MEANWHILE AT ALLIANCE HQ
Phin's Blogtip:
Alternative Blogrolling
Filthy Lie Assignment reminder: What would Instapundit's final post look like? due by 11pm EDT Friday, September 23rd. Late entries must be accompanied by a lame excuse.
Wednesday Linky Stuff
Precision Guided Humor Round-up: Hunger Strike!
New Precision Guided Humor Assignment: Who should replace Kofi Annan as UN Secretary General?
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Hmm, who should replace Kofi Annan? ME! Think about it. First, Kofi is so dumb he needs to form a commitee just to tell him what a 'terrorist' is (in all seriousness, I WISH that what I just said was some lousy joke). Me, I know what a 'terrorist' is; a terrorist is someone who is always trying to find new ways to say "please hunt me down and fulfill your sadistic desires on me and all my friends".
Second, Kofi is up to his eyeballs in bribe scandals. Me, I'm too repulsively evil and anti-social to have anyone EVER try to bribe me.
Third, Kofi has allowed that poor giant gun in front of the U.N. headquarters to remain horribly disfigured. If I am made Secretary General, I promise to restore that beautiful weapon to it's original state. Then I'll allocate funds that will make a giant mechanical glove that I can wear that allows me to pick it up. I'll then use it to "eject" the delegates from China, Cuba, Iran, the Palistinian Authority, France, North Korea, and all those countries in Africa that I don't know how to spell but really suck.
Now get off your duffs and go lobby Congress or whoever's in charge of this sort of thing to make me be Secretary General of the United Nations. Remember, if Howard Dean can win ANY kind of election, then anything is possible if we try.
Gunlord
(Hmm, I wonder if I'll ever get any recognition for this thingy. Man, would that be cool.)
Posted by: Gunlord at September 22, 2005 07:17 PM (VpPgG)
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If you put this in the comments to the assignment, GEBIV will include it in the round-up & mention your name.
He's not going to find it here :-)
Don't be shy...
Posted by: Harvey at September 23, 2005 09:43 AM (ubhj8)
3
As far as the blog rolling thing goes... I think it's just as easy to just put the code in yourself.
Posted by: Partamian at September 27, 2005 07:25 AM (7piLy)
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HUNGER STRIKE! THE UNTOLD STORY
(
A Precision Guided Humor Assignment cross-posted from
IMAO)
Dozens of terrorist scumbags inmates at the Guantanamo Bay Detention Facility have gone on a hunger strike in an attempt to draw attention to the fact that they're not getting the due process that they're not entitled to because they're not US citizens.
Wait... that doesn't make any sense.
There must be some other reason for the hunger strikes, about which I speculate thusly:
Think that a gaunt, haggard appearance will make them look sexy - like supermodels!
Really pissed off about being served kosher pickles.
We won't even talk about the matzoh balls.
Trying to trick the guards into force-feeding them to satisfy their nasal-tube fetish.
A publicity stunt to get Cindy Sheehan to stop by.
Brad... Jennifer... *sob*... who can eat?
Can't properly flush a Koran using the low-flow toilets in their cells.
They're deathly afraid of hamburgers after having seen "Supersize Me".
After a 30-day interrogation session featuring Beatles music & Dr. Seuss books, they refuse to eat anything except green eggs and walrus.
Not taking a bite until Season 2 of Firefly goes into production.
I might join them for that one.
I suppose I should be concerned about this tragic development, but somehow I just can't find it in my heart to care.
I'm too broken up about Brad & Jennifer.
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COMMENT PARTY!
Blogdaughter Teresa of Technicalities
posts:
After tonight I won't be online again until Friday.
WHEN will people learn not to announce that their blogs have been left unattended?
Meanwhile, Beloved Wife TNT of Smiling Dynamite has brought in a case of Tequila, and bloggranddaughter Sissy of And What Next... is already requesting Marines - she's just insatiable!
Anyway, I know JUST what this party needs, so I'm headed over there...
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FOOD AND MUSIC
Lynn of
Reflections in D Minor has this quote:
If Johann Strauss II is the musical equivalent of whipped cream, Richard StraussÂ’s waltzes from the Rosenkavalier are whipped cream with a pound of sugar and half a dozen egg yolks.
Then she asks for more music/food comparisons.
Personally, I've always considered Mozart to be whipped cream, chocolate syrup, and busty, identical-twin strippers.
Beethoven's pretty much the same thing, except with handcuffs & a bullwhip.
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HURRICANE NAMING TRIVIA
From this article in
the Times Online
* There are only four names left for tropical storms and hurricanes this year: Stan, Tammy, Vince and Wilma. After that, names switch to the 24 letters of the Greek alphabet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and so on through Omega, if needed.
* A storm name is retired if it causes widespread damage and deaths.
* When old names are retired, new names have to be drafted in to a database maintained specifically for Atlantic Ocean storms.
* In Asia, storms may be given names of people, but also of flowers or other non-human beings.
* Japan does not participate in this system, preferring instead to number each storm chronologically starting anew each year.
* Currently, there are six separate 21-name lists and each of them is used every six years in a rotation. They donÂ’t include names that begin with q, u, x, y and z because there arenÂ’t enough names starting with those letters.
In the roughly 60 years since regular hurricane naming started, they've never needed to go to the Greek alphabet.
So, if there is a deadly Hurricane Alpha, what is it replaced with when itÂ’s retired?
"We donÂ’t know. It will go to the Swahili alphabet or something else," joked Jim Lushine, severe weather expert at the National Weather Service in Miami.
Posted by: Harvey at
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I still think they should have a Hurricane Boudicca. Really. But, alas, it won't happen. They've never used my real name either. I think it doesn't sound omininous enough.
Posted by: Bou at September 22, 2005 04:16 PM (5JHEt)
2
That makes sense. Could you take seriously hurricanes named Quixote or Zelda?
Posted by: oregano at September 22, 2005 10:11 PM (TEQKE)
3
Crap, so that means that Harvey could be back next year? I'm all out of jokes.
Posted by: SeanS at September 22, 2005 10:24 PM (cEjQ0)
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