of the universe arising by happenstance, crunches some numbers, and concludes.
"In other words, according to physics and mathematics, there is absolutely no possible way that this universe was created through random chance -- it's simply not possible."
I beg to differ. There's a big difference between "infinitesimally small" and "non-existent".
What he's calculating are the odds of getting it right on the first try.
As the number of trials approaches the inverse of the odds of occurrance, the likelihood of success approaches certainty. Not knowing the number of trials involved, though, there's no conclusion to reach about how much of a long-shot the universe is. There may well have been a Googolplex of failed universes before a functional one popped up.
For the record, I'm agnostic about any particular theory of universal creation. The rules of physics changed at the (moment of creation/big bang), and without consistent rules, there's no way to deduce what happened before that moment.
So if you want to say "God created it", fine.
Me, I'm just going to say "I don't know, and I don't think I ever will".
1
I'm not going to say who, what, when, why, or how, but I'm just going to ask this:
As a kid, or even now, how many times have you dumped out a cannister of lincoln logs and they've bounced into a cabin? Or taken an erector set, tossed up all the pieces together, and had a working vehicle when it landed?
I'm not saying that it's impossible, just nearly so... unless there's some assistance.
Posted by: That 1 Guy at September 27, 2005 10:36 AM (YcI5w)
2
Even if you take the case that there was only one attempt the probability argument doesn't work.
What happened is one of a possibly infinite number of outcomes, but something was going to happen, and whatever it was that happened was going to be one of a possibly infinite number of outcomes.
The only think that makes it interesting is the fact that we are talking about large enough numbers that they are approaching unimaginable.
Posted by: tommy at September 27, 2005 10:43 AM (TWHR8)
3
(Anxiously waiting Harvey's Response to T1G because the odds don't increase with infinite possibilities, according to the smart math people).
Posted by: Ogre at September 27, 2005 02:11 PM (/k+l4)
4
Slightly away from the point, here are some pretty fly MC Hawking lyrics:
I'm not saying there's no God,
That's not for me to say.
I'm just saying the universe
wasn't built in a day.
Posted by: Chuck at September 27, 2005 07:47 PM (JXgKx)
5
Dump out that bucket of Lincoln logs.
Return logs to bucket.
Dump again.
Repeat every minute for several billion years.
No matter how improbable, as long as something isn't completely impossible it will happen given a long enough time span.
That said, my own personal belief is that the nature of the universe and man's understanding of it are mutally exclusive. That there is an intelligence behind everything, and if we ever even come close to figuring out the rules of the game that intelligence will change the rules around because it's a complete asshole like that.
Posted by: Graumagus at September 27, 2005 10:07 PM (z9usc)
6
T1G - Sure, in THIS universe, pouring Lincoln Logs into a cabin is improbable, but if you adjust some of the physical constants, it becomes quite commonplace :-)
Posted by: Harvey at September 27, 2005 10:22 PM (ubhj8)
7
I find the example flawed in that logs do not have the capacity to evolve. Each instantiation of a human habitable environment is unique. Even if they were all identical, the myriad of possible variables induces the possibility of random having success.
By the way, I support ID.
Posted by: _Jon at September 27, 2005 10:23 PM (sSrI9)
8
But odds and probability are different things. Odds are a mathematical number. Probability is the chance that something will actually happen. In this example, and the Lincoln Log example, you might be able to calculate that there is a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (breath) 000,000,000,000 chance that the logs when dumped out will form a house. However, the probability of that happening is zero -- it will not happen.
It's the same with the origin of the universe. Mathematically, it's simply not possible to randomly form, no matter how many times you dump that pile of stuff out.
Posted by: Ogre at September 28, 2005 06:02 AM (/k+l4)
9
Ogre - You're assuming these physical constants CAN be dumped. There may be an underlying force in the universe (as yet unknown) which - as an emergent property - causes constants to be restricted to what they are.
Of course, if THAT were true, you'd point to THAT and say "See? Intelligent Design!" :-)
Anyway, for everyone's amusement:
Infinite Monkeys!
Posted by: Harvey at September 28, 2005 07:44 AM (ubhj8)
Hide Comments
| Add Comment
